Oil prices could average $130 a barrel next year, according to Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs analysts expect Brent crude to average around $130 a barrel next year, with prices potentially reaching $140 if tensions in the Middle East intensify. The forecast places geopolitical risk at the center of the oil outlook, rather than demand alone. For markets, that matters because crude is a key input cost across transport, manufacturing and consumer energy bills, so a sustained move higher would feed through to inflation and household budgets.

The bank's base case is an average, not a ceiling, and the $140 figure is explicitly conditional on a worsening situation. That distinction is worth keeping in view: forecasts of this kind describe scenarios, not certainties, and energy prices have repeatedly confounded projections in both directions.

What to watch is whether physical supply is actually disrupted, how inventories and futures curves respond, and whether producers signal a supply response. Broader inflation data and central bank commentary will also indicate how much of an oil-driven cost increase is passing into the wider economy.