Oil prices approach Iran-war highs as soaring tanker rates trigger a second energy squeeze

Oil prices are pushing back toward levels last seen during the Iran conflict, with the latest leg higher driven less by crude fundamentals than by the cost of moving barrels. Soaring tanker rates are effectively imposing a second squeeze on the energy market: even where supply exists, transporting it has become markedly more expensive. That freight premium feeds directly into delivered crude costs and, ultimately, into refined product prices.

The market relevance lies in what this signals about risk pricing. As the summary notes, Wall Street may be starting to price in the scenario everyone fears — a full-scale regional conflict that could further choke off global energy supplies and unleash a fresh wave of turmoil across financial markets. When freight and insurance costs rise alongside headline crude, it suggests markets are assigning a higher probability to disruption, not merely reacting to current flows.

What to watch: whether tanker rates stabilise or extend, since sustained freight inflation would keep upward pressure on delivered energy costs independent of supply headlines. Also worth monitoring is whether the risk premium spreads beyond oil into broader inflation expectations and risk assets — a sign that markets are treating this as a persistent condition rather than a temporary spike.