CIBC slashes gold price forecasts but sees recovery to $5,200 in 2027 as central bank demand offsets Fed headwinds - Kitco

CIBC has cut its near-term gold price forecasts, according to Kitco, while maintaining a constructive longer-term view that sees the metal recovering to $5,200 by 2027. The revision reflects two competing forces: headwinds tied to Federal Reserve policy, which affect the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold, and persistent demand from central banks, which the bank views as a durable source of support.

The split between a softer near-term outlook and an unchanged long-term target is notable because it frames the current weakness as cyclical rather than structural. Central bank buying has been a recurring theme in gold market analysis, and CIBC's projection implies that official-sector demand could absorb pressure from a less accommodative Fed environment.

For observers, the key variables to watch are the pace and scale of central bank purchases and the trajectory of Fed policy expectations, since the forecast rests on how those two factors balance out. How actual central bank demand data and rate expectations evolve over coming quarters will indicate whether the projected recovery path remains credible.